The psephologist’s guide to stopping Boris
Starring two or three horses and an elephant in the room.
(Use this link to jump straight to our advice without reading the full post.)
This post has been brewing for a while now, as we’ve monitored the opinion polls throughout the campaign, and by coincidence this morning I received an e-mail from a Stop Boris campaign supporter urging us to make a post along these lines. So here it is.
The Stop Boris campaign was started and has been run with one objective: to do whatever it takes to keep Boris Johnson out of City Hall. I won’t list again the reasons why this is so important – there are 125 other blog posts, a web site and a group and application on Facebook that do that.
One thing we have been clear about from the outset is that this campaign is not seeking to endorse any particular alternative candidate to Boris: we’ve provided links to all but the BNP’s manifestos and other information, and been as meticulous as possible in retaining our non-partisan status throughout the campaign.
It also seems prudent at this juncture to remind readers that Dave Hill of the Guardian has independently confirmed that we are not a ‘Team Ken front’, without breaking the anonymity that we’ve (often frustratingly) had to maintain for personal reasons throughout this campaign. No-one is paying us to run Stop Boris – indeed no-one is even asking us to run it – and in fact only our close friends and family members even know who we are! We’re running this campaign in a personal capacity out of a genuine fear of the damage Boris would do if given control of London and its £11bn budget for four long years.
But now, at this point in the campaign, with barely a week until election day, we have to face facts. We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room: an elephant which the opinion polls suggest is not about to reach for its jumbo coat and leave the room.
While the opinion polls throughout the election have varied significantly, the overall picture is that Boris is at worst in the lead by quite some way, or at best pretty much exactly level with Ken Livingstone. Brian Paddick is bringing up the rear with only a fraction of the votes of either of these front-runners. In other words, this election is (some might say bafflingly!) proving to be a two-horse race.
In any normal, first-past-the-post (FPTP), one-vote-per-person election, the course of action for stopping Boris in these circumstances would be obvious and straightforward, if not to everyone’s liking: vote for Ken. But the election for Mayor of London gives each voter two votes.
LiveJournal user publicansdecoy has a dispassionate analysis of what this means for those of us wishing to stop Boris.
From his analysis (and further clarification among the comments) we see that using either your first or second preference vote for Ken is equally helpful in an attempt to stop Boris. It also does no harm to the chances of your genuine first choice if you put Ken as your second choice.
In the comments on that post, someone by the name of matgb (who sounds to be something of an expert psephologist based on publicansdecoy’s reference to him in his main post) goes one step further, offering advice on the ultimate Stop Boris pair of votes:
Use your first vote for the person you most want to win. Use your second for either Ken or Boris, unless your first vote is for one of them, in which case your second should be for Brian (there’s still an outside chance he could take a second place position, in which case he probably wins).
[…] if you really want to stop either Ken or Boris, then Brian 1st choice is the best way to go psephologically.
So if your only consideration is stopping Boris, Brian first, Ken second is the way to vote. It’s also your best hope of stopping Boris but keeping Ken out as well, although I wouldn’t want to overstate the likelihood of that happening, given how far ahead Boris and Ken are of Brian. But if enough people vote Brian 1, Ken 2, it’s certainly within the realms of technical possibility that it comes to a Boris v Brian run-off, with Brian taking the prize. Perhaps there are three horses in this race after all.
Before concluding this post, I would like to pre-emptively defend us against some potential attacks.
The Stop Boris campaign is not telling anyone how to vote. We are not endorsing a candidate, or indeed two candidates. We are simply advising our readers, from a psephological point of view, about how to vote in order to stand the best chance possible of stopping Boris.
That said, assuming the opinion polls aren’t unprecedentedly, enormously, wildly inaccurate, there’s no getting away from that aforementioned elephant in the Stop Boris living room: because this election is so very likely to come down to a run-off between Boris and Ken on second preferences, putting neither of your crosses against Ken does seem unlikely to have any more impact than a spoilt ballot paper would. But it’s still preferable to spoil (or effectively spoil) your ballot paper than to vote for Boris!
So in summary, here’s our advice, (to which this is a permanent link, which you are very welcome indeed to publicise):
If you want to use your ballot paper specifically to stop Boris, and…
1. …you think Ken’s the best choice for Mayor:
- Put Ken as your first choice.
- Put Brian as your second choice. It’s unlikely your second choice will be counted, so it almost certainly doesn’t matter who you put; but if it does get counted, it being for Brian would be of most use in stopping Boris, as he’s the only other candidate with a (very slim) chance of reaching the second preference run-off.
2. …you think someone other than Ken is the best choice for Mayor:
- Put your favourite candidate as your first choice. This will help them retain their deposit, but only in the event of a major upset will it actually result in them winning.
- Put Ken as your second choice.
3. …you’d rather avoid Ken being Mayor too, if at all possible, or
4. …you don’t really care who’s Mayor, as long as it’s not Boris:
- Put Brian as your first choice. He’s the only candidate with any slight chance of beating both Ken and Boris, if he gets enough first-preference votes to make the final round.
- Put Ken as your second choice. If you’re a ‘number 3′, hold your nose or look the other way as you cast your vote but, like it or not, Ken’s the only person with a good chance of stopping Boris. It’s a shame that a non-FPTP vote should require choosing ‘the lesser of two evils’ in many people’s eyes, but that’s the reality of the situation we find ourselves in.
So, with all that in mind, let the final week of campaigning commence.
Best of luck, Boris-stoppers!
April 23rd, 2008 at 23.29
Dave Hill? Independent? Pull the other one!
April 24th, 2008 at 00.05
I’ve heard some ridiculous conspiracy theories eminating from Team Boris before but that one really takes the biscuit. Are you seriously accusing Dave Hill of being part of the Ken machine? That’s extraordinary. Are you sure you’re not Mohammed Al-Fayed?
April 24th, 2008 at 13.24
At least Fayed has the courage to make his crazy accusations out in the open.
April 24th, 2008 at 14.12
Heh, I can’t really criticise people for anonymity, but for the record “Anon” was posting with one of those ‘random number @ webmail account’ e-mail addresses that only started springing up after we exposed Team Boris’s astroturfing exploits…
April 24th, 2008 at 16.21
[…] raise transport fares in London. Meanwhile, Stop Boris has a tactical voting guide on, er…, how to stop Boris.[…]
April 24th, 2008 at 17.15
On Mondays Wednesdays and Fridays, I am in the “Stop Boris!” camp. On Saturdays, Sundays and Tuesdays the past-sell-by smell of Ken overwhelms me.
So for me Brian the Paddick 1st, with second depending on when I cast my postal vote.
April 24th, 2008 at 23.33
Well, wouldn’t say I was an expert as such, but it’s something I’ve studied and take a strong interest in. But that is in fact a very well written explanation and is close to the post I’ve been planning for ages. So instead I’ll be linking to it all over the place as you’ve quoted me and my argument.
Publicansdecoy (who’s anonymous for professional reasons) has basically regurgitated and rewritten discussions in his comments box I’ve had with various people going back months, and done a very good job. If I still lived in London I’d have undoubtedly been reading this site extensively, and am impressed anyway.
Probably a good job I don’t though, afraid I’m in the stop Ken camp and thus would use my 2nd for him…
April 25th, 2008 at 18.35
Diversity: Vote today! Don’t leave it ’til tomorrow or Sunday, whatever you do!
MatGB: Thanks for stopping by. I’m glad you think I’ve captured the spirit of your case, and, well, I did only say you sounded to be something of an expert, which you do
I take it you meant you’d use your second preference for Boris? I’m afraid that if so I will have no option but to dislike you enormously
April 26th, 2008 at 13.25
Left List TV and Radio Broadcast
The Left List TV broadcast will be shown on Tuesday 22nd April on BBC1 at 6:55pm and ITV1 at 6:25pm. Our radio broadcast will be on BBC Radio London at 6:55pm.
The broadcast is a fantastic statement of what we stand for and deserves to be seen as widely as possible. Click on the link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIBKwRHvkV8 , watch it and send it round to all your friends! You can also view it from http://www.lindsey4london.org.
Councillor Rania Khan’s responce to ‘Vote for Ken’
It is naive to think that giving Ken Livingstone a second preference instead of a first will do his election chances any serious harm. The two preference system of voting allows people to vote FOR what best suits their aspirations and not risk letting in the more worrying front runner. If Boris Johnson gets 50%+ in the first round, it won’t be because of the way other people voted, it will purely be because more than half the people showed a preference for him.
Once the ‘minor’ candidates have been discounted from the race, the second preference votes carry just as much weight as first preferences, meaning you cannot ‘waste’ a vote on a minor candidate. The Green Party and the Left List are calling on their supporters to second preference to keep Boris Johnson out, they will doubtless be joined by many LibDem voters.
Ken Livingstone has been a key supporter of Muslims and someone who takes a good stand against Islamophobia, but there are many of his policies that are detrimental to muslims and poor people in London. He supported Sir Ian Blair after the murder Jean Charles de Menezes, has called for increased police powers and supports the discriminating ID card and national identity register. These aside, he remains a far preferable candidate than Johnson who’s crimes and objections I do not need to list here.
Lindsey German has been instrumental in the involvement of muslims in the anti-war movement, has stood shoulder to shoulder with us in some of the most difficult times. I remember hearing her inspiring speeches after 7/7, the legacy of the Stop the War Coalition, of which she is convenor, has changed the interaction between muslims and the rest of society to great benefit.
I will be supporting the Left List in this election and voting for Lindsey as my first preference but am also giving my second preference to Ken in order to keep Boris out. I will urge the Muslim community to do the same to vote for someone who has always spoken up for us and worked with us. This can only work to help us. Perhaps most importantly is the make sure people vote for the Left List on the London wide assembly member ballot. Here, Lindsey stands a real chance of getting elected onto the Greater London Assembly.
April 26th, 2008 at 16.09
Thanks Rania, it’s good to see campaigners for the ‘minor’ candidates taking the time to explain to their supporters how the voting system works and how to use their second preference vote to stop Boris.
April 30th, 2008 at 15.07
Thank you for helping to combat the ceaseless propaganda from the unholy alliance of the Evening Standard and Ken Livingstone that a vote for Brian Paddick is ‘a wasted vote’.
A vote for Brian is a positive vote, a vote that says ‘I’m not going to vote Ken, even though I don’t like the way he’s running the city (meeting developers to tell them to make office buildings taller, but refusing to listen to residents’ concerns; standing ’shoulder to shoulder’ on platforms with homophobic, sexist Muslim clerics; wasting money on self-propaganda etc etc), I’m not going to vote for him simply because he’s the ‘lesser of two evils’.
You can vote Brian 1, Ken 2 to ’stop Boris’.
April 30th, 2008 at 19.07
Thanks Lee. I don’t want to overstate Brian’s chances of actually becoming Mayor, which are very small, but it’s nevertheless the case that a combination of Brian and Ken is psephologically the best way to stop Boris.
Because of the two-preference system in use, the only ‘wasted vote’ in this election, by which I mean a completely wasted Mayoral ballot paper, is a ballot paper which does not contain a vote for one of Ken and Boris, since the choice is extremely unlikely not to come down to those two at the end of the process. Which of your two votes you give to Ken (or, god forbid, Boris), and how you use your other vote, is entirely up to you!
April 30th, 2008 at 20.26
keep ken in .we can’t have a tory running london
May 1st, 2008 at 14.03
Dave Hill has now admitted that he is supportive of Ken.
May 1st, 2008 at 15.55
Fucking communist scum. Red Ken and Gordon the Jock are useless muppets. Vote Boris all the way. An educated gentleman or a wilting, pathetic prick of a communist………..? No contest…….Vote for Boris.
May 1st, 2008 at 17.37
You’re entitled to your own opinion of who to vote for, i’m not voting and dont plan to. But advertising the Stop Boris on websites is an under hand tactic, and only makes me wish i had voted boris
May 1st, 2008 at 18.06
ChrisB:
I’ve never yet deleted a comment from this web site, and I will continue that policy with yours, because frankly your comment reflects so spectacularly badly on Boris supporters that I can only foresee it furthering our cause, if anything.
rob:
I’m not sure what you mean by “advertising the Stop Boris on websites”. I only run this web site. Which web sites have you seen Stop Boris being advertised on? I’m rather confused by your comment and I’d like to understand what you think is “underhand”.
May 1st, 2008 at 21.26
This site obviously has no clue about Boris’ policies and the lack of common sense emanating from Ken Livingstone and some of the other candidates. Boris may be seen by some as a fool, but I’d rather have a fool with good ideas than someone with ideas that seem to have come from the ‘brain’ of George ‘China is Big’ Bush as Mayor anyday.
Hope that Boris wins and you are proven wrong.
May 1st, 2008 at 21.38
James W:
That’s a bizarre point. I’ve seen loads of people comparing Boris to Bush - both play the fool but disguise quite nasty right-wing views, both opposed Kyoto, both are quite libertarian, both are offensive to various people, both opposed gay rights… the comparisons are endless. I’ve never heard anyone compare Ken with Bush, other than favourably.
What ‘good ideas’ does Boris have? I don’t recall much in the way of good ideas, or indeed any fleshed-out ideas at all from him in the entire campaign.
QuestionThat:
Forgot to respond to your point earlier. My point about Dave was that he has provided independent verification that Stop Boris is not a ‘Team Ken front’ or whatever I was accused of being. Suggesting he isn’t independent enough to be able to do that adequately was suggesting that both he and I are all part of some big Team Ken front and in league with each other and so forth. I don’t think anyone could seriously suggest that!
June 28th, 2008 at 01.37
[…] and Howden Posted on 28 June 2008 by Pushing the boundary I realise my track record on influencing people’s voting choices isn’t great, but for the record I wholeheartedly agree with Dave Cole’s conclusions on next […]